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IMF cuts global growth forecasts, but raises UK forecasts – live

Powered by Guardian.co.ukThis article titled “IMF cuts global growth forecasts, but raises UK forecasts – live” was written by Graeme Wearden, for theguardian.com on Tuesday 8th October 2013 15.48 UTC

4.48pm BST

Larry Elliott: It’s not an Osborne triumph

But while the Daily Telegraph calls for Olivier Blanchard to apologise for wronging our dear chancellor, economics editor Larry Elliott suggests George Osborne should avoid self-congratulation following today’s upgraded growth forecasts.

Instead, Osborne could ponder whether things could have been much better without the fiscal cutbacks implemented early in this parliament.

Larry writes:

In one important sense Osborne gets his pound of flesh from the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook. The fund’s growth forecasts for the UK have been revised up by 0.5 percentage points this year and by 0.4 percentage points in 2014 – comfortably the biggest increases for any developed country. What’s more, the IMF predictions still look a bit low given recent developments in the economy. Further upgrades from the 1.4% and 1.9% pencilled in for this year and 2014 still look likely, unless the global economy nosedives in the coming months.

But Blanchard was quite right to say that the pick-up in activity in the UK during the summer does not settle the debate about how the economy might have fared under an alternative strategy. All recessions come to an end eventually, so the real question is whether the upturn in Britain was unecessarily delayed by VAT increases, cuts in capital spending and the chancellor’s comparison of the UK with Greece. Academic research by the economist Alan Taylor suggests that UK GDP would be 3% higher today without austerity.

Has George Osborne had the last laugh on growth and the IMF? Hardly

4.26pm BST

That didn’t take long…

4.10pm BST

Another sign the UK is picking up, from the Institute of Directors. It reports that 75% of IoD members reckon the outlook is now brighter than at any stage since the financial crisis hit in 2008.

The IoD added:

  • Members are increasingly confident about the outlook for the economy, with nearly half (46%) displaying high confidence for the next 12 months, and only 12% saying they have low confidence. This is a marked improvement on the first quarter of 2013, when 15% had high confidence and 39% low confidence.
  • Throughout the year, members have been more confident about their own business’ outlook than they have about the wider economy, but this gap is beginning to narrow. 58% of directors answered that they had high confidence in the outlook for their business, compared to 8% who had low confidence. The fact that individual business confidence and whole economy confidence are coming together is a positive sign that the recovery is taking hold.

3.47pm BST

Here’s another chart from the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook, showing how the total debt of advanced economies is at its highest level, as a percentage of national output, since 1950.

It is expected to drop, gradually, over the next five years as the world economy grows:

3.28pm BST

Back over to Greece, where the second trial of Greek journalist Kostas Vaxevanis has been stopped, within hours of starting.

Helena Smith was there, and reports that proceedings were paused when the court had only heard from their second witness, “who spoke for a good three hours”.

The judge hearing the case ruled that the three-member court should reconvene on October 21 to decide on a date for a trial.

As explained earlier, this is Vaxevanis’s second trial for publishing the Lagarde list of tax evaders. So far, no-one has actually been charged with tax evasion over the list.

Updated at 3.29pm BST

3.16pm BST

Duncan Weldon, TUC economist, urges caution over the IMF’s new UK GDP forecasts. Today’s upgraded prediction of a 1.4% increase in GDP this year simply matches what the Fund expected in July 2012.

3.13pm BST

The IMF World Economic Outlook is online here.

Here’s the chart showing all its growth forecasts:

And here’s the chart showing how the IMF is less upbeat about growth prospects in advanced economies and emerging markets (the red line is today’s forecasts, the blue=April’s forecasts).

2.50pm BST

Larry’s story on the IMF being more pessimistic about the global economy is now online. It begins:

Badly handled budget cuts in the United States and a slowdown in activity in big developing countries mean the global economy will expand more slowly than expected this year, the International Monetary Fund said.

Revising down its forecasts for growth in both 2013 and 2014, the fund warned that the risks were that the performance could be even more lacklustre and said the Federal Reserve, the American central bank, needed to take special care as it contemplated reducing its colossal stimulus to the world’s biggest economy.

The IMF now expects the global economy to expand by 2.9% in 2013 and 3.6% in 2014 – down by 0.3 and 0.2 points respectively on its last set of predictions made in July- despite signs of recovery in the euro area.

IMF cuts global economic growth forecasts for this year and next

2.45pm BST

IMF on the euro area

IMF deputy director of research, Jörg Decressin, said Europe looks stronger because there is less fiscal consolidation this year than in 2012; even peripheral countries should emerge from recession over the next year.

Decressin added that a strong banking union is “absolutely critical” to tackle financial fragmentation.

Updated at 2.45pm BST

2.40pm BST

IMF: UK upgrades don’t mean we were wrong

Olivier Blanchard also defended the IMF’s warning six months ago that George Osborne was playing with fire with his austerity programme.

Is the IMF admitting that Osborne was right?

Blanchard replies that the IMF has been “pleasantly surprised by the fact that growth was stronger” than expected; but insists that it that “doesn’t settle the debate” on fiscal policy, adding:

It doesn’t tell if the pace of fiscal consolidation was wrong… or whether growth could have come back earlier with a different fiscal framework.

He added that the IMF’s job is to warn about risks; that’s what they did.

I suspect this won’t spare the IMF some robust criticism from Osborne’s supporters:

2.31pm BST

IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard has been enlarging on the Fund’s view of the consequences of the looming US debt crisis, in the ongoing Q&A (which is online here):

If the debt ceiling is not lifted then there’s a direct effect on government spending, which would have to be cut quite drastically…

In addition, it would probably lead to a lot of financial turmoil: if there was a problem lifting the debt ceiling, it could well be that what is now a recovery could turn into a recession, or even worse.

(via Observer economics editor Heather Stewart)

2.28pm BST

Labour shadow chancellor Ed Balls’s responds to the news that Britain’s growth forecasts have been upgraded by the IMF, and by more than any other major economy:

After three wasted years of flatlining it’s good that we finally have some growth. But this is the slowest recovery for 100 years and working people are worse off as prices continue rising faster than wages.

Despite these welcome changes to its forecasts the IMF rightly warns that the UK economy will remain below potential for many years. That’s why the IMF has repeated its view that the Government should bring forward infrastructure investment now, which could be used to build thousands of affordable homes.

Instead of more complacency from George Osborne we need action to secure a strong and sustained recovery, catch up all the lost ground and tackle the cost of living crisis.

2.27pm BST

Here’s a table showing how the IMF expect major economies to perform this year and next year

  • United States 1.6%, then 2.6%
  • Euro Area –0.4%, then 1.0%
  • Germany 0.5%, then 1.4%
  •  France 0.2%, then 1.0%
  • Italy –1.8%, then 0.7%
  • Spain –1.3%, then 0.2%
  • Japan 2.0%, then 1.2%
  • United Kingdom 1.4%, then 1.%
  • Canada 1.6% ,then 2.2%

Updated at 2.38pm BST

2.18pm BST

Here’s economics editor Larry Elliott’s news story on the IMF predicting stronger growth in the UK this year and in 2014:

IMF raises UK growth forecasts as economy ‘turns corner’

2.16pm BST

The IMF is also more upbeat about the conditions in the eurozone. It now predicts that the eurozone economy will shrink by 0.4%, not by 0.5% as in July. It still expects growth of 1% in 2014.

2.12pm BST

IMF: US must raise debt ceiling

The IMF is warning the US government to raise its debt ceiling soon, and end the federal government shutdown.

A press conference is underway, and chief economist Olivier Blanchard is telling reporters that failure to raise the debt ceiling would be “a major event”; a prolonged failure would “almost certainly derail the US recovery”.

The IMF also warns America to slow the pace of its deficit reduction programme. The planned US fiscal consolidation is “too large, and too arbitrary”, he added.

2.07pm BST

Treasury hails upgraded UK growth forecasts

The UK Treasury has cheered the news that the IMF has upgraded its growth forecasts for Britain.

A spokesperson for the Treasury said:

The IMF has confirmed that the UK economy is turning a corner, by revising up its forecast for growth over the next two years by more than for any other G7 economy.

But risks to the global economy remain high, and the recovery cannot be taken for granted. That is why the government will not let up in implementing its economic plan, which has already cut the deficit by a third, kept interest rates near record lows and created over a million and a quarter jobs.

Worth noting, though, that the IMF still wants the British government to take advantage of current low borrowing costs for long-term investment.

It said:

In an environment of still low interest rates and underutilisation of resources, public investment can also be brought forward to offset the drag from planned near-term fiscal tightening, while staying within the medium-term fiscal framework.

2.01pm BST

IMF releases world economic outlook

Breaking: The International Monetary Fund has raised its growth forecasts for the UK, in its new World Economic Outlook.

The Fund now expects the UK economy will expand by 1.4% in 2013, an upgrade of 0.5 points. Next year, it sees growth accelerating to 1.9%, up by 0.4 points.

Quite a boost for chancellor George Osborne.

However, the IMF has has downgraded its forecasts for the global economy. It now expects growth of 2.9% this year, down from 3.1%. Next year it expects growth of 3.6%, down from 3.8%.

More to follow

1.54pm BST

A summary

A quick catchup of the main events, before the International Monetary Fund releases its latest World Economic Outlook in a few minutes (2pm BST).

Asia-Pacific leaders have warned that economic conditions are deteriorating. At a meeting in Bali, the APEC group said:

Global growth is too weak, risks remain tilted to the downside, global trade is weakening and the economic outlook suggests growth is likely to be slower and less balanced than desired.

The latest economic data from Germany has rammed this point home — imports were lower than expected in August, and the country’s exporters fear lower sales growth this year.

• Slovenia’s central bank governor has suggested the country may need external help for its banking sector, unless its borrowing costs ease.

The Wall Street Journal has published details of documents which show how and why Greece’s 2010 bailout was mishandled.

1.43pm BST

Here’s a photo of Greek journalist Costas Vaxevanis arriving at court in Athens for a new trial over the Lagarde list of alleged tax evaders, which he published.

As explained at 12.16pm, the Greek authorities are appealing Vaxevanis’s acquittal.

1.12pm BST

Wall Street is expected to open flat in around 80 minutes time, as New York traders await developments in the US government shutdown/debt ceiling showdown.

European shares have dropped through the morning – with the FTSE 100 is down 45 points. Marks & Spencer is the biggest faller, down 3%, after analysts at Bernstein cut their rating today and warned clothes sales are still weak.

Updated at 1.12pm BST

12.52pm BST

Slovenia’s central bank governor: We might need some assistance

The central bank governor of Slovenia has hinted that the country could be forced to seek international help to clean up its banking sector, Reuters reports.

Bostjan Jazbec was asked about the possibility of asking for aid, during a press conference on the bank’s new macroeconomic forecasts in Ljubljana today. He replied:

That is possible if yields on Slovenian securities remain high.

Jazbec added that the Slovenian government is trying to bring its borrowing costs down, but cautioned:

If that is not successful then there is a possibility to ask for help within various programmes.

Slovenia has been keeping a low profile for some months — after Cyprus blew up, it was being talked about as the next candidate for a eurozone bailout. It’s problem is that the country’s banks, mainly state owned, are laden with around €7.5bn of bad loans — over a fifth of itsGDP.

Yesterday, interior minister Gregor Virant told reporters that Sovenia could use the European Stability Mechanism to overhaul its local banks. A decision isn’t expected until bank stress test results arrive, in November.

Slovenia’s 10-year bonds, the benchmark for market access, are trading at yields of 6.6% to 6.8% today. Typically, the 7% level is seen as crucial. If yields don’t drop, Jazbec and colleagues could soon be badgering Europe for help.

12.16pm BST

Greece gripped by Lagarde case and Tsochadzopoulos sentence

Over in Greece there is much ado over two court trials this morning as the journalist who revealed the infamous Lagarde list of suspected tax evaders takes the stand again and Greeks digest the news of the imprisonment of the country’s former top socialist politician Akis Tsochatzopoulos.

Our correspondent Helena Smith reports:

Hundreds of people piled into building number 9 to hear the retrial of Kostas Vaxevanis – the journalist who took the political establishment by storm last year publishing the names of more than 2000 suspected tax evaders included in the infamous Lagarde list.

The trial, demanded by a public prosecutor after an earlier judgment acquitting Vaxevanis of breaching privacy was deemed to be flawed, comes at a pivotal time following the 20-year prison sentence handed down last night to the country’s former defence minister Akis Tsochadzopoulos.

The landmark verdict has sent tremors through the political scene with commentators describing the ruling as the most important of the last 20 years. Tsochadzopoulos, who until his arrest was a prominent socialists in the Pasok party he also helped co-found in 1974, was found guilty on Monday of pocketing around €55m in bribes culled from kickbacks given in weapons purchases.

In a trial that lasted more than five months, the court heard how the former socialist strongman oversaw an ornate offshore money-laundering network that enabled him to build an empire of illegal wealth. In a letter released to the public today, Tsochadzopoulos accused the court of “derailing from the law and justice,” saying he not only did not recognize it but would appeal the verdict immediately.

How Greeks will react to the judgment remains to be seen: although years of impunity has meant that most are eager to see justice being meted out to corrupt politicians, the vast majority view Tsochadzopoulos as being just the tip of the ice-berg. It is questionable whether his imprisonment will sate their thirst for punishment.

And in a third Greek courtroom, the trial of Golden Dawn MP Costas Barbarousis, who was due to stand trial on Tuesday along with another 10 members of the ultranationalist party, has been postponed to November 10.

The Kathimerini newspaper reports that the case was delayed as three of the defendants did not have legal representation in court.

11.41am BST

Another signal that global trade is faltering — Germany’s BGA trade association has slashed its forecast for export growth in 2013 to below 1%, from 3%.

BGA president Anton Börner told Reuters:

We can’t achieve 3 percent growth anymore. We now expect … growth of less than one percent.

There is a whole bunch of factors slowing us down.

Börner cited the turmoil in the Middle East, the US government shutdown, signs of financial strife in emerging markets and the eurozone’s weaknesses, adding:

If things go badly, we will see stagnation at best. If they are resolved, there could be decent growth.

11.31am BST

German industrial orders drop

Germany has fanned fears over the strength of global trade by reporting a drop in industrial orders.

The German finance ministry says industrial orders fell 0.3% in August, adding to the 1.9% slide seen in July. Economists had expected a bounce-back.

Overseas orders slid by 2.1%, or 2.9% within the euro region, showing that Germany suffers from the weak demand in other nations. Orders for capital goods (such as large machinery) from other euro members tumbled by 9.2%.

The German economic ministry tried to put a positive spin on the figures, pointing out that demand for capital goods within Germany jumped by 4.7%. That suggests domestic investment activity is picking up.

And if you compare the July-August period to the previous two months, total industrial orders were actually up 0.2%. However, again, that was driven by domestic demand (+2.7%). Not a bad thing — but foreign orders were still down by 1.7%.

It rather reinforces this morning’s warning from Asia-Pacific leaders that “Global growth is too weak, risks remain tilted to the downside, global trade is weakening” (see full statement in the opening post). 

11.11am BST

Back to Bali, where America says it hasn’t given up hopes of a new trade deal, called a Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) , hours after world leaders warned that global trade is slowing.

US trade representative Michael Froman told reporters that the TPP trade pact could be agreed by the end of the year. That optimism comes despite a range of hurdles including intellectual property to state-owned enterprises, labour and the environment.

Froman told reporters:

I think there is a consensus that there has been substantial progress on outstanding issues and there are still remaining issues that must be addressed.

Analysts fear that President Obama’s absence from the Asia-Pacific forum in Bali will weaken America’s diplomatic punch at the summit. It has left secretary of state John Kerry to wave the flag for the US among other world leaders:

Updated at 11.11am BST

10.56am BST

Ireland’s next austerity budget may be less harsh

Over in Ireland, finance minister Michael Noonan has dropped the heaviest of hints that next week’s austerity budget will take up to a half a billion euros less out of the Republic’s economy than previous ones during the financial crisis.

Our correspondent in Dublin, Henry McDonald, has the story:

Speaking on the way to a Cabinet meeting in Dublin this morning, Michael Noonan said that €2.5bn is to be taken out of the economy in the budget and not the projected €3.1bn.
Noonan predicted that a resurgent Irish economy would make up for the remaining €600m, through extra tax revenues.

Despite his announcement, Budget 2014 is likely to again contain unpopular measures as the Fine Gael-Labour coalition seeks to drive down Ireland’s national debt and keep in line with the financial recovery programme imposed by the IMF and Europe since the Republic was bailed out from the brink of insolvency.

Fellow Cabinet ministers still bracing themselves for more cuts to areas such as a social welfare where around €440m will probably be taken out of spending.

The budget comes less than a fortnight after Enda Kenny’s government sustained a massive electoral blow when the country’s voters rejected the coalition’s proposal to abolish the Republic’s second parliamentary chamber, the Seanad.

Portraying this budget as not as harsh as the previous ones in recent years is part of a government strategy to convince voters that the Coalition remains on course to steer the economy towards full recovery. As always it will be economic competence and the perception that things are getting better that provide the best hope for the coalition to survive into the next general election.

10.47am BST

10.35am BST

WSJ: New documents lift lid on Greek bailout blunders

The Wall Street Journal has today published new information which confirms what many observers and combatants in the eurozone crisis have long suspected – that the 2010 bailout of Greece badly botched, contributing to the country’s subsequent woes.

With a third aid package for Greece looming, the WSJ has got its hands on a cache of documents marked “Secret” or “Strictly Confidential” which show how the International Monetary Fund struggled to tackle the Greek problem three years ago.

Crucially, the document shows that some IMF members were pushing for a debt write-offs in 2010 – something which finally happened in Greece’s second bailout, after Eurozone banks had the chance to offload their Greek bonds.

The 2010 documents show that several IMF directors were deeply skeptical of the staff’s economic projections from the beginning, calling them “rather optimistic,” “overly benign,” even “Panglossian.”, the WSJ reports.

And while the IMF presented a united face in public, there was pitched argument and dispute behind the scenes about the wisdom of the 2010 bailout plan — which forced tough austerity onto Greece in return for loans, but without tackling its overall debt pile.

The full story is here: Past Rifts Over Greece Cloud Talks on Rescue

Here’s a flavour:

The IMF documents show there were heated discussions about the need to write off part of Greece’s debt from the start. At the May 2010 meeting, directors from Middle Eastern, Asian and Latin American countries repeatedly asked why they weren’t being presented with the option.

European directors were “surprised” when Switzerland “forcefully” weighed in on the dissenting side, the minutes show. “Why has debt restructuring and the involvement of the private sector in the rescue package not been considered?” the Swiss executive director, Rene Weber, asked at the time.

The IMF says today that debt restructuring simply wasn’t feasible in 2010, because the risk of Greece’s financial turmoil spreading to other countries was so high.

Much of the debt was held by already fragile French and German banks, so European nations wouldn’t consider it. And the U.S. feared its own trillion-dollar exposure to European banks.

Ms. Lagarde was French finance minister at the time and keen to avoid losses by her country’s banks, which had lent heavily to Greece. Mr. Strauss-Kahn—widely known to be angling for the French presidency at the time—backed off a tentative effort to press the issue after encountering European opposition before the IMF meeting.

Back in June the IMF admitted that mistakes were made in 2010, when it published its own review of the bailout. These documents confirm it.

Updated at 1.02pm BST

10.01am BST

Italy’s bad bank debts rise again

Italy’s banks remained lumbered with bad debts in August, new data from the Bank of Italy shows.

The number of non-performing loans across the sector was 22% higher than a year ago, matching July’s rate.

As this graph shows, the amount of toxic debts on the books of Italian banks rose steadily through its recession:

Italian lenders continue to rein in credit too — despite the ECB’s efforts to encourage it. Lending to households is 1.2% lower than a year ago, while the cost of loans to companies rose. A loan of up to €1m cost 4.5% on average, up from 4.41% in July.

Updated at 10.02am BST

9.47am BST

The political row over the sale of Royal Mail is set to continue today, with news that the flotation of the historic organisation is proving a resounding hit with the public, and the City.

There’s such demand that Royal Mail shares are on track to be priced at the very top of the official range, 330p each.

Good news if you get a slice of the action (the float closes at midnight, folks). And as we reported last night, the government is making more shares available to the public, rather than letting hedge funds and speculators devour the lot.

More here: Royal Mail shares set to be priced at top of range on unprecedented demand

But even at 330p each, there’ll be a massive storm if – as appears likely – the share price spikes to 400p when trading begins.

As my colleague Nils Pratley puts it,

There is a real risk that the public purse could be royally short-changed in the Royal Mail privatisation.

9.27am BST

Mike van Dulken, head of research at Accendo Markets, says the City’s patience is running thin with the lack of progress over the US government shutdown, adding:

Risk aversion sees participants cashing out rather than placing more bets until a major move is made in Washington.

Updated at 9.40am BST

9.24am BST

Europe’s stock markets are sagging again today, as the US shutdown enters its eight day.

We’re just nine days away from 17 October — the date when America’s national debt is expected to hit the $16.7trn limit agreed by Congress.

China’s warning yesterday that America needs to act swiftly to avoid a default captured plenty of attention yesterday, but didn’t spark a breakthrough in Washington.

So the main indices in Europe are in the red again, with the FTSE 100 down another 22 points at 6414.

9.09am BST

August wasn’t a great month for Spain either — industrial output across the country was 2% lower than in August 2012, marking two full years of contraction.

This graph shows the steady decline (the red line is the seasonally adjusted data, while the orange line tracks the unadjusted figures):

8.49am BST

German trade surplus rises

The latest economic data from Germany also suggests global trade isn’t on fighting form, as APEC warned.

Germany’s adjusted trade surplus rose to €15.6bn in August, due to a small rise in imports – just 0.4% compared with July – while exports of goods rose by 1% month-on-month

On a year-on-year basis, German imports were 2.2% lower than in August 2012 while exports of goods were 5.4% lower.

The data, which is seasonally adjusted, doesn’t suggest a surge in German consumption that would help weaker neighbours. It also means German exports are still 1.1% lower than over the first eight months of 2012.

That underlines that the global economy remains sluggish, although Thomas Gitzel at VP Bank is optimistic for the future, saying:

Global trade remains off-colour, which is putting the brakes on German exports.

The outlook for the coming months is much more promising. Important freight indicators have risen considerably.

8.23am BST

The Asia-Pacific leaders’ warning about the global economy has been echoed by Saxo Bank this morning.

Saxo’s chief economist, Steen Jakobsen, warns that the global economy is ‘running on empty’. Next year, the world must face the consequences of the ultra-loose monetary policies that have helped keep developed markets afloat, he argues:

2014 will see a bigger discussion on what is the real exit strategy from the current ‘extend and pretend’. Right now the market only sees two paths: Inflating the economy to reduce the burden of debt, or writing off the debt between treasuries and central banks.But I believe there is a third way:

A repeat of the 1940s – the last time Fed was this involved in so-called helping the market. Back then, the Fed got saved by disinflation and a recession brought on by the very same policy which today slows the path towards recovery too much easy money. History is about to repeat itself only because we fail to learn and to embrace the need for change.

8.16am BST

Photos: protests against APEC

There were protests in Bali today against leaders attending the APEC summit, led by anti-globalisation campaigners from the Indonesian People’s Alliance.

The demonstrations, which appear to be peaceful, called for the Summit to be abandoned and claimed that trade liberalisation would actually bring little benefit to the region:

Australia and China are still struggling to finalise a trade deal, even after 18 rounds of talks, with the new Australian prime minister, Tony Abbott, saying he might have to accept a watered down deal.

Reuters explains:

Negotiations have been delayed by Beijing’s concerns over opening markets to Australian food, while Australia wants China to do more to protect intellectual property.

Updated at 8.17am BST

7.44am BST

Asia-Pacific leaders warn growth is too weak

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the financial markets, the world economy, the eurozone and the business world.

We start with news out of Bali, where leaders from across the Asia Pacific region have warned that economic conditions are weakening.

The Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) issued a joint statement in which they pledged responsible macro-economic policies, but the key point is that they’re bracing for tough conditions. World economic growth remains too subdued, they said, with a greater risk that conditions will deteriorate rather than improve.

It’s a timely warning from APEC — the International Monetary Fund is due to release details of its latest World Economic Outlook later today (2pm BST).

Here’s the key line from APEC’s statement:

Global growth is too weak, risks remain tilted to the downside, global trade is weakening and the economic outlook suggests growth is likely to be slower and less balanced than desired.

The group of 21 countries, which includes Japan, China, Russia, the United States and Australia, also pledge ‘prudent and responsible’ policies to help the region, saying:

We will implement prudent and responsible macroeconomic policies to ensure mutually reinforcing effect of growth and to maintain economic and financial stability in the region, and prevent negative spillover effect.

Barack Obama wasn’t present to back the statement, though. The US president remains in Washington for Day Eight of the US government shutdown. With America’s debt ceiling deadline looming, APEC leader may have wondered if the global economy is about to get a nasty shock.

With no deal in Congress, European stock markets are expected to drop again this morning.

I’ll be tracking all the developments through the day…

Updated at 8.30am BST

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About Carl William Brown

I'm Carl William Brown a holistic teacher, a webmaster, a trader, and a writer of aphorisms and essays. I have written more than 9,000 original quotations and at present I'm also working at my only novel, Fort Attack, which is also a wide and open blog project. At the moment I'm teaching English in a secondary school, but up to now I have done a lot of other things as well, both in business, educational, sport and social fields. Some years ago, in 1997 following the examples of the Rotary or the Lyons Clubs I founded the Daimon Club Organization to promote every sort of activities, creativity, art, literature, new technologies, informatics, business and marketing, public health and education and to meet new friends with these kind of interests.
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